A better future, but at what cost? (image source: Australian Commonwealth Government)
The Australian Labour Government’s National Broadband Network (NBN) policy dream is failing and no-one is really noticing. It’s not a case of it being a bad idea, but more realistically it’s a case of very bad execution, as dreams of government often are.
All government policy is supposed to go through rigorous cost-benefit analysis to ensure that the public gets something that is the best possible solution for a problem. This did not happen with the NBN. The scary part is, it appears that everyone is so hooked on the idea of it, no-one is really very willing to ask the hard questions. Everyone wants the 100mbps promised by the Government, and anything less, even if it potentially costs half as much or a third, is not good enough. I refer to the fact that there has not been a lot of public scrutiny of NBN Co and the NBN policy in the media, but heavy fixation on the Opposition’s incomplete policy. This is unheard of I would think for an infrastructure policy of such magnitude (the government could purchase around 1 million Ford Falcon’s for its current projected cost). And problematically, NBN Co has not been very transparent as would be expected for an investment worth so much.
In January of this year, according to Brian Corrigan at the Australian Financial Review, the NBN had only passed 18,200 homes, while NBN Co had predicted 137,000 by June of this year.
By July, it appears that this number had little changed. According to Malcom Turnbull, Shadow Minister for Communications and Broadband, NBN Co also claimed that by June 30th of this year, there would be 151,000 active connections, when in reality, it appears there are no more than 11,000. Of these over half are using temporary satellite services. To be honest, it’s very hard to find any solid figures on NBN connections or numbers of homes passed, it’s just not discussed by the Government or the media, but I did find some information.
Government Minister for Communications and Broadband, Senator Conroy is good at stating how many premises will be NBN capable 12 months from now, or its benefits, but the actual rollout figures and updates of NBN service uptake numbers are pretty rare and generalised. Look below to see what the Government and NBN Co provide.
NBN Co’s ability to fulfill its rollout promises so far have been far off-target, so why is no-one nagging the Government about NBN Co’s current predictions? This concern is reinforced by the Government now moving to an opt-out installation model. According to Lucy Battersby from the Sydney Morning Herald, NBN Co no longer needs consent to enter properties and will automatically connect all properties it passes unless the property owner chooses to opt-out.
But the question that remains is will this actually increase the rate of user uptake of the NBN or significantly speed up the rollout? A premises that is physically connected to the NBN may not actually have an active NBN internet connection. Notably, NBN Co’s business model is heavily reliant on getting as many people as possible using the NBN to bring pricing down because it is so expensive.
To get some perspective on this issue, read this essay I wrote late last year discussing the significant policy issues of the NBN, and perhaps you’ll be more than a little worried about this policy. Think a new monopoly to replace Telstra, poor business model that has raised doubts in treasury, removal of all non-wireless competition, and a complete lack of cost-benefit analysis (a real one, not dinky marketing ones).
Analysis of Australian NBN Program 2011
(UPDATED)
Graeme Lynch at Commsday.com reports Communications minister Stephen Conroy discussing his authority over telecommunications regulation:
“The regulation of telecommunications powers in Australia is exclusively federal. That means I am in charge of spectrum auctions, and if I say to everyone in this room ‘if you want to bid in our spectrum auction you’d better wear red underpants on your head’, I’ve got some news for you. You’ll be wearing them on your head,” said the minister. “I have unfettered legal power.”
Senator Conroy then goes onto state that the NBN is about responsibility, not power. But after his very serious attempts to enforce mandatory filtering onto ISPs recently (which is sure to rear its ugly head again some time in the future), this doesn’t completely ring true. The NBN would be needed to offset the slowdown any mandatory filtering of the internet would generate.
(UPDATE 2)
Paul Fletcher from The Australian writes an interesting comparison piece between Australia’s NBN roll out, and that of the New Zealand roll out.
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